Hassan vs. Ayotte: What you need to know

By Paul Briand

Now that Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan has announced her intention to run against Republican U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte, here are a few things you need to know as we prepare for what is likely to be the most interesting race of the 2016 election:

1. There is a lot at stake. Ayotte’s seat in the U.S. Senate is seen as vulnerable. That means the race is going to get a lot of attention -- from the national media, from the Democrats who see the seat as crucial to regaining a majority in the Senate, and from the Republicans who see the seat as crucial to holding on to their majority.

2. Expect a lot of PAC money and ads. With so much at stake from a national political perspective, you’ll see a lot of political action committee in support and in opposition of both candidates. And those ads are likely to get nasty. Immediately after Hassan announced her Senate run Monday, the America Rising super PAC came out with an ad portraying Hassan as a tax and spend Democrat. See a WMUR report here.

3. Lots of heavy hitters will visit the Granite State. You think you’ve seen a lot of political heavyweights visit New Hampshire already with our first-in-the-nation primary? You ain’t seen nothing yet. Again, the stakes of this race are such that both parties will roll out as many heavy weight political figures and endorsements as they possibly can in an attempt to influence voters. Hillary Clinton will campaign with and for Hassan, so will Vice President Joe Biden, and don’t be surprised if President Barack Obama shows up. U.S. Sen. John McCain will probably come back to the Granite State to support Ayotte - and any number of GOP presidential contenders ... and maybe a Bush or two?

4. This won’t be a runaway for either candidate. This race is likely to go down to the wire on election night. Polls indicate a close race. A very opportunely timed poll from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, released on the very day of Hassan’s announcement, shows them deadlocked and shows they each enjoy a high degree of popularity among New Hampshire voters.

5. This race will be decided by turnout and undeclared voters. One crucial thing to remember about New Hampshire is that undeclared voters outnumber Republicans and Democrats. The latest numbers from the Secretary of State’s office show 380,751 undeclared voters, compared to 261,906 registered Republicans and 229,884 registered Democrats.

6. It will be a difficult race to predict. Political pundits, yours truly among them, will do what they do - discuss, analyze, and guess. But it’s difficult for any of us to really predict the behavior of the New Hampshire voter. It may come down to Ayotte for the simple fact that Granite Staters may like the balance of having one Democrat in the Senate (Jeanne Shaheen) and one Republican in the Senate (Ayotte). But, again, who knows for sure?

7. We’ll have a new governor. With Hassan not running for a third term as governor, it means we’ll have someone else as governor in 2017. This election is as wide open and wide open can be. Among Republicans, Executive Councilor Chris Sununu is already in - we’re awaiting word from other Republicans: Senate President Chuck Morse, Senate Majority Leader Jeb Bradley and Senate Finance Chair Jeannie Forrester, among them. Among Democrats, Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern will likely jump in and former Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen (daughter of Sen. Shaheen) is thinking about it. See an NH1 rundown here.

8. For more information. The Ayotte campaign web site is here. The Hassan web site is here. The LFDA’s Ayotte page is here. The LFDA’s Hassan page is here.