Predictions vary for primary turnout

Tomorrow, New Hampshire heads to the polls for primary elections to select candidates for federal and state races, from the U.S. Senate to the New Hampshire House. Will contentious races bring voters to the polls, or will the election be overshadowed by the high-profile presidential race?

Estimates of turnout tomorrow vary. Secretary of State William Gardner has predicted that residual fervor from the February presidential primary and big races such as the wide-open run to replace Gov. Maggie Hassan will bring above-average turnout, at roughly 26%. Gardner estimated that 126,000 Republican voters would make it to the voting booth, along with 86,000 Democrats. If Gardner’s guess is accurate, this would represent New Hampshire’s third-highest state primary turnout.

The record for Republican primary voter turnout is 155,000, set in 2002 when Jeanne Shaheen left the governor’s seat vacant to run for the U.S. Senate. The Democratic record was set under similar circumstances in 1992.

However, University of New Hampshire Survey Center head Andrew Smith voiced a different opinion, saying that with the candidates for governor on both tickets relatively unknown, only 15-20% of voters will make it to the polls. Smith predicted that numbers would be particularly low for Democratic voters, at around 10%. 

Casting a ballot tomorrow? We’ll take the guesswork out of voting.

• Get the facts with our free NH Voter Guide mobile app, which provides background and issue positions for the candidates in your district at the touch of a screen.
• Dig deeper on our Prepare for Elections pages, which are filled with even more information on who’s running, with more issues, voting records, videos and the latest news.
• Hear the candidates in their own words on our Debates page.
• Not sure where to vote tomorrow? Visit the Secretary of State’s polling locations page. (Or download the NH Voter Guide, which also makes this information available through a handy drop-down search.) 

What's your prediction for voter turnout tomorrow? Comment and share your thoughts!