Video: Political analyst previews election

By Paul Briand

Dean Spiliotes, a civic scholar at Southern New Hampshire University, is called upon frequently to comment on Granite State politics. On Tuesday, he offered his insights to what might happen on Election Day for about 120 people at a lecture in Durham sponsored by the Active Retirement Association.

Included among his predictions:

• U.S. Rep. Annie Kuster, the Democratic incumbent in the 2nd Congressional District, should win handily over Jim Lawrence, her Republican opponent;
• Democrat Carol Shea-Porter has the edge to win the 1st Congressional District seat back from incumbent Republican Frank Guinta, though the independent candidate, Shawn O’Connor, is likely to draw votes from her;
• The U.S. Senate race between incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte and Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan is a toss-up;
• The governor’s race between Republican Christopher Sununu and Democrat Colin Van Ostern is also too close to call;
• Democrat Hillary Clinton should beat Republican Donald Trump for the state’s four Electoral College votes in the race for president.

A lot of the pre-election handicapping offered by Spiliotes is rooted in his tracing of past elections. Given that history, he noted that New Hampshire voters tend to favor Democratic candidates in a presidential election year. Here’s what he had to say:

He said that the in-migration of Democrat-leaning voters over the last decade or so has changed the character of New Hampshire from the red of solid Republican more toward a hue of blue for Democrats. He said this is especially true in the 2nd Congressional District, where he predicted that voters are likely to return Democrat Congress to Washington for a second two-year term.

“The demographics of that district are really problematic for any Republican,” said Spiliotes, who also noted that media reports concerning Lawrence’s property tax and child support issues haven’t helped his campaign. “That’s problematic,” said Spiliotes. “I think that’s dragging him down as well.”

In the 1st Congressional District, he reviewed some of the issues facing incumbent Guinta, including the Federal Election Commission ruling that he violated campaign finance laws during the 2010 election. And he talked about the impact that O’Connor may have on Shea-Porter, siphoning votes away from her, which Guinta is all for. Here’s what he said about O’Connor:

Given that Guinta and Shea-Porter have run against each other four times in 10 years, and with O’Connor’s role in the race, Spiliotes described the dynamic this way: “They’re almost like an old married couple and Shawn O’Connor is almost like their wayward son.”

Spiliotes lamented that the governor’s race between Sununu and Van Ostern, both members of the Executive Council, is not getting the attention it deserves:

“This is a tough one,” he said about who might win the race for governor. He gives the name advantage to Sununu; he gives the political organization advantage to Van Ostern. “In my mind this is a toss-up,” he added.

The U.S. Senate race between incumbent Ayotte and challenger Hassan could depend largely, according to Spiliotes, on what happens at the top of the ticket in New Hampshire between the presidential candidates. He talked about Ayotte and the race here:

As for the race between Clinton and Trump, Spiliotes said he doesn’t expect New Hampshire to have the swing-state impact of Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. That’s because Clinton has held a comfortable lead in state polls all along. But election night could be the canary in the coal mine for Clinton. “If she loses the state, that will be seen as an indication of much larger problems nationally because she’s had good margins here,” said Spiliotes.