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Video: UNH pundit faults pollsters and punditry

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By Paul Briand

University of New Hampshire political scientist Dante Scala took the mea culpa on behalf of pundits and pollsters after the election proved most of them wrong about who would become president.

Scala, a pundit himself who is a frequent commentator on New Hampshire politics and elections, spoke to about 150 people Tuesday at the Durham Evangelical Church as part of the Active Retired Association’s memorial lecture series.

“We’re a little less bright, a lot less bright, than we think we are,” said Scala.

Here’s what he said about the pundits getting it wrong:

Scala was preceded at the lecture series a week before the election by fellow pundit Dean Spiliotes, civic scholar at Southern New Hampshire University. See video of that lecture here.

Scala cited forecasting models and conventional wisdom that pointed to Democrat Hillary Clinton winning the presidency and Democrats winning enough seats to gain control of the U.S. Senate. Instead, Republican Donald Trump won enough Electoral College votes to win the presidency and the Republicans retained control of the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House.

Elements of the modeling included growth of the economy, approval ratings of the individual in the White House, length of time that individual’s party has held the White House, and polling. “I was confident going in that Democrats would have a good evening,” said Scala.

Here’s what he had to say about the Clinton campaign versus the Trump campaign:

“All of the evidence pointed to a narrow but discernable win for Clinton,” he said.

But, according to Scala, Clinton failed to capture the so-called “Obama coalition” of minorities, women, and young people. She failed particularly badly among women, to whom she campaigned directly, particularly in the face of derogatory comments Trump made about certain women during the course of the campaign. “Arguably, it fell short,” he said.

And, he noted, Republicans, despite some reservations about Trump, chose party over candidate. “Party identification is one of the most important glues in American politics,” he said. “Slowly but surely, they were saying, ‘I’m coming home to my party.’”

According to Scala, this election will change the future of political analysis:

See a Foster’s Daily Democrat story on his presentation here.
 

 

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